More on the Mississippi

American Waterways Operators sent out this advisory today on Mississippi River water levels. It makes me wish I had the money and time to get out there and report from the scene. But that's the first thing I learned about economics: tradeoffs between unlimited desires and limited resources.

In an effort to keep you apprised of the ever-changing hydrograph forecasts, yesterday the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers released water storage again (first release was on December 15) from Carlyle Lake located on the Kaskaskia River near St. Louis to support the continuation of navigation on the Mississippi River.   

 

The latest projections indicate that this water release, along with the current weather forecast, will cause the river gauge at Thebes to reach “3” and falling (dropping below 10 feet) around January 7; to reach “2” and falling (dropping below 9 feet) around January 15, and to reach “1” and falling  (dropping below 8 feet) around January 23.  The Corps also suggests that its rock pinnacle removal efforts may begin to have an impact on the controlling depths around January 20, but that is still to be determined. 

 

When the gauge drops below a certain point, the Coast Guard reduces draft by one foot (or requires a minimum of one foot of under-keel clearance) to provide an adequate safety margin according to current rules. 

 

The full majority of towboats cannot operate at less than a 9-foot draft, so the majority of navigation will cease on or around mid-January according to this latest forecast without more water.

 

The continued uncertainty regarding what drafts will be available continues to choke freight movements just as much as the low water itself.  Without certainty that the water will be there when barges reach Thebes, shippers continue to light-load based on worst-case scenarios, or continue to cancel  trips altogether.  The channel at Thebes remains closed for 16 hours of the day, and only open 8 to towboats/shippers. 

 

WCI, AWO and other stakeholders continue to press the White House, Congress and the States for assurances that the water will be there when barge shipments arrive in order to prevent further economic loss. 

Shutdown loomijng on the Mississippi?

This is from the Mississippi River, not the Ohio River, but it's still significant for people who watch the transportation industry. Here is a news release issued by American Waterways Operators on Dec. 27:

ARLINGTON, VA – Late Christmas Eve, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers advised industry of the most current 28-day weather and water forecast for the Mississippi River area near Thebes, Illinois, south of St. Louis, where rock pinnacle removal work is taking place.  The forecast suggests that commerce on the Mississippi River could come to an effective halt earlier than expected in the New Year, around January 3 or 4.  Earlier forecasts had suggested that the congressionally authorized nine-foot navigation channel could remain in operation until perhaps the middle of January.

The latest forecast calls for the Mississippi River gauge at Thebes to be at 3 feet and falling on or around January 3-4, with vessel drafts limited to 8 feet. The forecast for the river gauge to reach to 2 feet and falling will be on or around January 12-13, allowing only a 7-foot maximum vessel draft. It is estimated that the river will reach a reading of 1 foot and falling on or around January 19, which equates to 6 feet of navigable depth. The majority of towboats require a 9-foot draft to operate and only a very small number of towing vessels can operate at 8- or 7-foot drafts.

Stakeholders continue to urge the Administration to release a minimal amount of water from the Missouri River reservoirs (4,000 cfs or 1% of current storage in the reservoir system) to avert this effective shutdown of the Mississippi River to barge transportation. While the Corps and the Coast Guard have said that they have no plans to close the river, this latest forecast and falling water levels will preclude navigation because towboats will be unable to transit the “bottleneck reach” between St. Louis and Cairo, Illinois.

 

“The Corps’ rock pinnacle removal and dredging work and our collective prayers for rain have not produced enough water to sustain navigation on the Mississippi River and so the Administration must act to avert a closure,” said Michael J. Toohey, President & CEO, Waterways Council, Inc.  “We have been urging action all along and the time is now to release needed water or we will have run out of time on this national crisis,” he continued.  

 

“The nation’s shippers, farmers, manufacturers and operators have been feeling the impacts of this emergency, with cancelled orders, lost exports to market, and higher prices to consumers, but unless water is provided now to avert a shutdown, those impacts will increase significantly.  Unless the Administration takes action now, the nation risks 60 days or more without waterborne commerce on the mid-Mississippi River,” said Tom Allegretti, President & CEO, American Waterways Operators.  “We urge the White House to authorize the release of additional water immediately to maintain navigation on our country’s busiest and most important waterway.”

 

This potential supply-chain disruption could amount to a staggering loss for the U.S. economy, affecting nearly 20,000 jobs and $130 million in wages in Mississippi River states as well as $7 billion in commodities in December and January alone, including:

 

·         Over 7 million tons of agricultural products worth $2.3 billion;

• Over 1.7 million tons of chemical products worth $1.8 billion;
• 1.3 million tons of petroleum products worth over $1.3 billion;
• Over 700,000 tons of crude oil worth $534 million; and,
• 3.8 million tons of coal worth $192 million.

 

“Thousands of the nation’s farmers, shippers, manufacturers and towboat operators urge action from President Obama to direct the Corps to release a small amount of water from Missouri River reservoirs over a short period of time to keep businesses open, exports and cargo moving, and Americans employed,” Toohey and Allegretti concluded.